IBM Report: “The End of Advertising as We Know It”

Podcasting News points to a report compiled by IBM with the scary title: “The End of Advertising as We Know It.” I’m not sure what IBM knows about the state of advertising but they surveyed more than 2,400 consumers and 89 ad execs globally.

The report from Big Blue forecasts “greater disruption for the advertising industry in the next five years than occurred in the previous 50.”

When I read stuff like this, I ask the men and women in our company (who sell a LOT of advertising) if they get a similar read and the answer is always, “Nope, everything is A-OK.” No changes on the horizon. Everything is hunky-dory.

Well, five years isn’t that long. We shall see what we shall see.

PS: Here’s one more graph from the report summary:

More than half of ad professionals polled by IBM expect that in the next five years open advertising exchanges (currently led by companies like Google, Yahoo, AOL) will take 30 percent of current revenues now commanded by traditional broadcasters and media. Nearly half of the advertising survey respondents anticipate a significant (greater than 10%) revenue shift away from the 30-second spot within the next five years, and almost 10 percent of respondents thought there would be a dramatic (greater than 25 percent) shift. Two-thirds of advertising experts surveyed by IBM expect 20 percent of advertising revenue to move from impression-based to impact-based formats within three years.

More ads flowing to blogs?

The Society for New Communications Research is a think tank on new media. They recently asked a couple of hundred advertising agencies about their plans to advertise and market in “conversational media” (blogs and podcasts and such). Among the findings:

“In the next five years, a majority of advertising and marketing professionals expect to spend more money on so-called conversational media–or online media that encompasses things like blogs and podcasts–than on advertising through traditional media such as newspapers or magazines.

Today, a majority of these agencies said that they spend about 2.5 percent of their total budgets on conversational media, but by 2012, they plan to tip that percentage to more than they spend on traditional media.”

From a post by Stefanie Olsen over at the C|Net Blog (Thanks to Kevin O’Keefe at LexBlog for the pointer.)

As one who has made his living from “radio spots” for 30+ years, this is hard to imagine. But five years isn’t that long. I guess we’ll see.

Blogs most trusted form of web advertising

“Consumer-generated content is by far a more trusted form of advertising worldwide than search engine ads, banner ads, or text ads, according to Nielsen, and is trusted almost as much as physical word-of-mouth. 66 percent of North Americans trust consumer-generated media, such as blogs. Only higher trust ranking was ‘other consumer recommendations,’ which earned 78 percent of respondents’ trust.” [WebProNews via LexBlog]

Recent example: George’s review of the new Sony HRD-CX7 digital video camera. I happen to know that George knows a LOT about cameras, hardware and software. If he likes this camera enough to buy and recommend it, that’s all I need to know.

Buy $1,000 in radio spots, get $2,000 back

TechCrunch wonders if Google’s radio ad network –Google Audio– is in trouble:

“Google is offering $2,000 to any advertiser who spends $1,000 on a Google Audio ad campaign. The $2,000 comes in the form of a credit on future ad campaigns, but part of it still comes out of Google’s pocket since it needs to pay the radio stations who will run the ads. It amounts to a “buy one, get two free” offer and is good through the end of the year.

If (Google) truly has a better way of buying and selling radio ads, advertisers and radio stations will quickly figure that out on their own. It is not a good sign when Google has to resort to paying customers to try out a new product.”

Update 10/15/07: This from a reader (who prefers to remain anonymous) who works at a radio station that runs Google Audio ads:

“This week we ran on average 18 :60’s a day for Google. They just fill in avails that are on our schedule, so many of them are in the evening between 6p-11p. Some hours may have a Google Ad in each stop set.

I don’t see the checks but I’ve heard they range from $500-$2,000 a month. We do have the ability to block out any hours or programming we don’t want their stuff in.

To me it would just seem to be up to the station owner/company is the money worth tying up the time with these filler type ads.  I’ve yet to hear an ad I thought specifically targets to our region or even state… and no real big name company’s like Ford, GM, McDonald’s, JC Penney, Target or anything.”

Sunglasses with hidden video camera

Too pricey by a long shot but I confess I’d love have a pair of these.

“A very stylish pair of sunglasses with a colour camera brilliantly hidden within the frame to give colour pictures and exceptionally clear audio, all recorded on to a personal video recorder. This is a wired, but very discreet system, and the beauty of it is that you know that whatever you look at is what is being filmed. The personal video recorder includes a built-in colour monitor and speaker, 32MB internal memory, which can be expanded by inserting a more powerful SD/MMC card and the ability to time and date stamp all video recordings. This really is “state of the art” equipment which is ideal for investigative journalists, private investigators and “mystery” shoppers.

Blinks ad adlets

“Miniature radio ads, spanning just a few seconds in length, are a hit in Hollywood, says market leader Clear Channel Communications Inc., which launched the spots known as blinks and adlets last year.

Homer Simpson’s unmistakable “D’oh!” or “Woohoo!” followed by the familiar tagline “Tonight on Fox!” for example, has been a popular two-second ad — known as a blink — for Fox Broadcasting.

Unlike longer ads, which run during minutes-long commercial breaks, the blinks and adlets are slipped in between songs.

Clear Channel declined to disclose pricing, but one ad executive said five-second adlets typically fetch as much as 20% of 60-second ads, which cost about $800 in major markets, and two-second blinks cost 10%.”  

— From latimes.com

Banner Blindness

Jakob Nielsen shares results of new eyetracking studies which confirm –"for the umpteenth time"– that banner blindness is real:

"Users almost never look at anything that looks like an advertisement, whether or not it’s actually an ad. On hundreds of pages, users didn’t fixate on ads. Scanning is more common than reading, but users will sometimes dig into an article if they really care about it."

Buying blog love

A co-worker dropped off a copy of a statement he received for some batteries he recently purchased (from Tenergy Corporation/All-Battery.com). At the bottom of the statement:

We pay $30 for your professional reviews and opinions.

Please review the products listed on all-battery.com

  • The review must be more than 400 words and shall be objective and must be posted on any well known forum or website
  • Constructive comments are always welcome
  • Must copy your review to "Product Reviews" section at http://forums.all-battery.com
  • Upon approving your review, we will send a $30 Gift certificat to you thru Email or PM

I’ve been reading about this kind of paid review but this is the first pitch I’ve seen. This raises so many interesting (to me) question:

  • Will they "approve" my review if I say something negative about their product or company?
  • What do they mean by "constructive comments?"
  • Will I get my gift certificate if I write nice things but disclose to my readers that I’m getting paid?
  • How many of their customers have blogs and websites? How many post to forums?

This just doesn’t smell right to me. If I discovered that a blogger was getting paid for reviews, I’d have trouble trusting anything else he/she wrote. If the company’s motives are pure, why not clearly state that the offer applies to any well-intentioned, objective review. And if someone has something critical to say, wouldn’t that be worth a $30 certificate?

There’s a way to do this, of course. If someone in the Casio (digital camera) marketing department noticed that I use/like/blog about their cameras, they could send me a new model and ask me to try it out and blog my impressions. Good or bad. They won’t have to give me the camera, because if it’s good, I’ll probably buy it. AND write nice things about the product.

Mark Ramsey: “You’re not in the ‘radio’ business anymore

Mr. Ramsey says the advertising industry is about to redefine radio’s “category.” According to a report by MediaVest, radio is now “audio”:

“In a new report being circulated to clients, MediaVest has adopted the position that terrestrial broadcast radio should no longer be looked at as a discrete medium in communications plans, but as part of a greater array of audio media–including satellite, online, mobile and a variety of personal media device technologies, such as iPods, other MP3 players, and even television, which increasingly is being used as an audio-only medium.”

“…radio should no longer be looked at as a discrete medium, but as part of a greater array of audio media.”

Ouch.

I agree with Mr. Ramsey that a) this has been coming for a bit and b) it is an important shift that too many “broadcasters” still don’t get. I encourage you to read the full post.