AI Snake Oil

(Perplexity) “AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference” by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor is a comprehensive examination of AI’s capabilities, limitations, and potential misuse. The authors aim to empower readers to distinguish between effective AI applications and “snake oil” – AI that doesn’t work as advertised.

Key points of the book include:

  1. Predictive AI often fails to deliver on its promises, especially in areas like predicting human behavior, academic success, crime likelihood, or civil wars.
  2. Generative AI, like ChatGPT, has valuable applications but also limitations. It can produce convincing-sounding content on any topic, but lacks a true source of truth and may generate misinformation.
  3. AI cannot effectively solve complex social issues, such as content moderation on social media platforms, due to the nuanced nature of human communication and values[.
  4. The authors argue that we should be more concerned about how people use AI rather than AI acting autonomously.
  5. The book highlights the need for better regulation of the AI industry and cautions against leaving AI’s future solely in the hands of tech companies.
  6. While critical of many AI applications, the authors remain optimistic about the future of generative AI and its potential benefits when used appropriately.
  7. The book provides guidance on how to spot AI hype and make informed decisions about AI-based products and services.

Overall, “AI Snake Oil” serves as a balanced examination of AI’s current state, debunking myths while acknowledging genuine progress, and emphasizing the importance of critical thinking in the face of AI hype.

Citations:
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/210319458-ai-snake-oil
[2] https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ai-snake-oil-how-to-spot-hype
[3] https://erictopol.substack.com/p/ai-snake-oila-new-book-by-2-princeton
[4] https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/introducing-the-ai-snake-oil-book
[5] https://www.techpolicy.press/ai-snake-oil-separating-hype-from-reality/

“Silent Authority”

I gave the same prompt to ChatGPT and got what I think is a much better story.

FBI Special Agent Kevin Morales hunched over his workstation, staring at the call logs with mounting unease. The case was already high-stakes: someone was sending anonymous, threatening messages to Supreme Court Justice Robert Whitfield, a man known for his controversial opinions. The number receiving the threats was supposed to be untraceable—accessible only to the highest echelons of government. Yet here it was, compromised.

Morales and his team had traced one suspicious call to a burner phone bought at a Walmart in West Palm Beach. That was unsettling enough. The Supercenter was just down the road from Mar-a-Lago, the residence of the former president. Coincidence? Maybe. But Morales didn’t trust coincidences, especially not in this line of work.

The techs had flagged the call as a possible anomaly—just a brief ping to the Justice’s secure phone. It stood out because whoever bought that burner had gone through great pains to cover their tracks. The usual digital footprints—security cameras, store receipts, or geotagged selfies—had been carefully scrubbed. That level of care suggested sophistication.

But something gnawed at Morales. The encryption protecting the Supreme Court’s communications was among the most advanced in the world, and yet… this burner phone had found a way in. Out of sheer curiosity, and in direct violation of protocol, Morales cross-referenced the numbers of other Justices. He bypassed layers of security to pull their call logs, knowing full well it could end his career.

What he found made his pulse quicken. The same burner phone had contacted two other Justices’ numbers in recent weeks. All evidence of these calls had been meticulously deleted, but Morales’s backdoor tools uncovered them. Someone was trying to erase a trail. Someone connected to this same device from West Palm Beach.

He sat back, chewing on his bottom lip. This was no ordinary prank or political pressure campaign. It had all the hallmarks of something bigger—blackmail, coercion, maybe even a conspiracy involving people who weren’t supposed to get their hands dirty. And yet, it made no sense. Who would be bold—or foolish—enough to tamper with the highest court in the land?

Before he could share his findings with his supervisor, Morales’s phone buzzed on the desk. Frowning, he glanced at the screen. It was a message.

STOP.

Two words, no sender ID. Morales froze. The phone in his hand wasn’t listed in any directory. No one outside the bureau had access to this number.

His heart thudded in his chest. Someone was watching. Someone knew he was digging where he shouldn’t. And now, they’d warned him.

For the first time in his career, Morales felt something cold settle in his gut. Not fear exactly—but the sinking awareness that he was no longer in control. He stared at the screen, his mind racing.

What if they knew everything?

“Dial C for Conspiracy”

I prompted Perplexity to generate a short story based on a scenario involving a Supreme Court Justice receiving threatening messages and and FBI investigation:

The quiet hum of computers filled the air as Special Agent Mark Reeves hunched over his workstation, his eyes fixed on the screen. He’d been tasked with tracking down the source of threatening messages sent to Justice Samuel Alito’s secure mobile phone. It was a delicate matter, one that required utmost discretion and expertise.

As Reeves sifted through the data, a peculiar pattern emerged. Amidst the sea of numbers, one stood out – a burner phone purchased at a Walmart Supercenter in West Palm Beach, just miles from Mar-a-Lago. His heart raced as he realized the implications.

Driven by an insatiable curiosity, Reeves made a fateful decision. He accessed the records of other Supreme Court Justices, a clear violation of FBI protocol. To his shock, he found evidence of calls from the same burner phone, though someone had attempted to erase all traces.

Reeves leaned back in his chair, his mind reeling. The implications were staggering. Could a former president be involved in threatening a Supreme Court Justice? And why were there calls to other Justices as well?

As he contemplated his next move, his personal phone buzzed. Reeves froze, staring at the unlisted number on the screen. The message was simple yet chilling: “STOP!”

His hands trembled as he set the phone down. How had they known? Who was watching him? The weight of his discovery pressed down on him like a physical force.

Reeves glanced around the office, suddenly feeling exposed. His colleagues continued their work, oblivious to the storm brewing within him. He had stumbled upon something big, potentially earth-shattering. But pursuing it further could cost him his career, maybe even his life.

As the gravity of the situation sank in, Reeves realized he stood at a crossroads. Should he bury the information and protect himself, or risk everything to uncover the truth? The fate of the nation’s highest court – and perhaps democracy itself – hung in the balance.

With a deep breath, Reeves made his choice. He began to type, documenting everything he’d found. Whatever came next, the truth had to come out. The integrity of the Supreme Court depended on it.

I asked Perplexity to suggest a title and it provided ten. I liked the one above best. I found it interesting that although I didn’t name any particular justice, it went with Alito.

Polostan by Neal Stephenson

I’ve read most of Neal Stephenson‘s novels and really enjoyed them. At least the early ones: Snow Crash (1992); Cryptonomicon (1999); The Baroque Cycle: Quicksilver (2003); The Confusion (2004); The System of the World (2004); Anathem (2008); REAMDE (2011)

His latest novel, Polostan, arrived this morning.

(Amazon) “The first installment in Neal Stephenson’s Bomb Light cycle, Polostan follows the early life of the enigmatic Dawn Rae Bjornberg. Born in the American West to a clan of cowboy anarchists, Dawn is raised in Leningrad after the Russian Revolution by her Russian father, a party line Leninist who re-christens her Aurora. She spends her early years in Russia but then grows up as a teenager in Montana, before being drawn into gunrunning and revolution in the streets of Washington, D.C., during the depths of the Great Depression. When a surprising revelation about her past puts her in the crosshairs of U.S. authorities, Dawn returns to Russia, where she is groomed as a spy by the organization that later becomes the KGB.

Set against the turbulent decades of the early twentieth century, Polostan is an inventive, richly detailed, and deeply entertaining historical epic, and the start of a captivating new series from Neal Stephenson.

I’d definitely call The Baroque Cycle historical novels. Same for much of Cryptonomicon. The Amazon description above reminds me of REAMDE, perhaps my favorite Stephenson novel.

When I opened the Amazon box, the first thing I noticed was how much smaller (number of pages) this new novel is. NS had no trouble cranking out thousand page books. I hope he has recaptured his earlier mojo.

Excerpts from his novels here.

Dancing and Singing at the Towne Grill

When I arrived at the Towne Grill at 1:30 p.m. they were cleaning up in preparation for closing at two o’clock. But the made me a grilled cheese sandwich (Best in Town) and since I was the only customer, they kept on closing up while somebody’s phone (?) was streaming music at volume.

Paul Simon’s You Can Call Me Al came up and I heard someone back by the grill singing along. Then the two servers who were sweeping up started singing along, putting a little boogie into the brooms. Next I heard the guy in the back washing dishes. And John (the owner) was right there with them.

It was like something from a Spike Lee musical (did he do musicals?). Everybody having a great time. I thought about grabbing some video but didn’t want to break the spell. You just had to be there. And I was.

Turns out there’s a pretty good story behind the official video.

The video became quite famous and features a comedic performance by Paul Simon and Chevy Chase. Here are some key details about the music video:

Initially, Paul Simon didn’t like the original music video for the song, which was simply a performance he gave during the monologue when he hosted Saturday Night Live[2]. A replacement video was then created, which became the widely known and popular version.

The replacement video was directed by Gary Weis and was partly conceived by Saturday Night Live creator Lorne Michaels[. This video features:

– Chevy Chase lip-syncing to Paul Simon’s vocals
– Paul Simon lip-syncing to the backing vocals
– Simon miming various instruments as they appear in the song

The video plays on the significant height difference between the 6’4″ (193 cm) Chevy Chase and the 5’3″ (160 cm) Paul Simon, creating a comical visual juxtaposition[2].

The music video for “You Can Call Me Al” became one of Paul Simon’s most recognizable and popular videos. It helped boost the song’s popularity, contributing to its commercial success. The song, initially released in July 1986, experienced a resurgence in sales and airplay after the album Graceland won Album of the Year at the 29th Annual Grammy Awards in February 1987[2].

 

 

NEXUS: Religion

Yuval Noah Harari begins his “history of information networks” talking about books as a type of technology, the Bible being the most successful example. And the Catholic Church as one of the most powerful networks.

After his death, Jesus became the subject of one of the most remarkable branding campaigns in history. […] The story of Jesus managed to have a much bigger impact on history than the person of Jesus.

While most Christians were not physically present at the Last Supper, they have heard the story so many times, and they have seen so many images of the event, that they “remember” it more vividly than they remember most of the family dinners in which they actually participated.

Religions always claim to be an objective and eternal truth rather than a fictional story invented by humans.

The Bible as a single holy book didn’t exist in biblical times. King David and the prophet Isaiah never saw a copy of the Bible. […] no two ancient Bibles were identical.

Catholic theology accepted that Jesus told us to love our enemies, but explained that burning heretics was an act of love, because it deterred additional people from adopting heretical views, thereby saving them from the flames of hell.

The first rule of changing church teachings is that you never admit to changing church teachings.

Religions throughout history claimed a nonhuman source for their holy books; soon that might be a reality. Attractive and powerful religions might emerge whose scriptures are composed by AI. Pg 209

The Bible had a profound effect on billions of people, even though it was a mute document. Now try to imagine the effect of a holy book that not only can talk and listen but can get to know your deepest fears and hopes and constantly mold them.